Time to hold some pundits responsible. Because every day they spew whatever malarkey wins them page views, retweets and cable news airtime but are they ever held accountable? Does anyone ever call them out on said malarkey when it proves, usually within a few days, to be completely off base? No. They’re given a free pass to generate brand new malarkey the next day and no matter how inaccurate their predictions were the day before they are usually never questioned. The cycle continued over and over and over. They’re worse than fake psychics, because at least fake psychics are able to realize that most people do have a dead relative named John.
So what was the most inaccurate prediction of the 2012 election season? Well, that would be the exact opposite of what actually happened: that Barack Obama would lose and Mitt Romney would win. Countless conservative pundits, day after day, wrote Obama’s obituary, most of them knowing that in our 24 hour new cycle (or even 6 or 12 hour cycle), the words and tweets of the previous day would be quickly forgotten and a new narrative would be written.
Here is some of the best Mitt-Will-Win punditry, starting at 10 (ok, 11!) days before the election, and counting down to the final predictions.
October 26th, 11 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 74.4% chance of winning
I think the Romney campaign’s guarantee of victory has mattered much less than the Obama campaign’s recent aura of defeat. Losing campaigns have a certain feel to them: They go negative hard, try out new messaging very late in the game, hype issues that only their core supporters are focused on, and try to turn non-gaffes and minor slip-ups by their opponents into massive, election-turning scandals.
Watching the final debate, the more I considered Barack Obama’s deplorably non-presidential affect and attitude; his reliance on corny, crudely-made zingers; and his almost pathological string of lies and distortions, the more it struck me that, at some level, he knows this is over.
The collapse of Obama’s winning coalition from 2008 is evident on multiple fronts… the president is now drawing in the RealClearPolitics average the support of (you guessed it) 47 percent of the voters.
Neil Stevens cherry picked one poll and predicted Minnesota and Pennsylvania would go to Romney!
Gallup’s new partisan ID split, one that mimics what Rasmussen has been saying all along, predicts nothing less than doom for the Democrats, and a solid, national win for Mitt Romney this year.
October 27th, 10 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 73.6% chance of winning
Hugh Hewitt – speaking of Ohio
I am not surprised by the crowds or the energy. People who think it is close will be surprised a week from Tuesday. You can’t hide the economy from the people living through it. Ohio wants change.
John Nolte, on Michael Barone
Michael Barone is no shill. He might be right-of-center politically, but he’s nobody’s flack. What he is, however, is one of the top three smartest numbers men in the country, and he’s predicting a Romney win.
Barack Obama is toast. This is not something I say lightly. I generally try to remain cautious about predictions, because the prediction business is a humbling one…. Obama will lose – perhaps lose a very close race, but lose just the same. That conclusion is only underscored by the fact that, historically, there is little reason to believe that the remaining undecided voters will break for an incumbent in tough economic times. He will lose the national popular vote, and the fact that he has remained competitive to the end in the two key swing states he needs to win (Ohio and Wisconsin) will not save him.
October 28th, 9 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 74.6% chance of winning
More and more, Americans are coming around to the idea that a President Romney would be a change for the better, which means that—barring some unforeseen shift in public opinion—Obama’s days in office look to be numbered.
Newt “I’m going to be the nominee” Gingrich
I think it’s very unlikely, as a historian that [Romney] can win a significant popular victory vote and not carry the electoral college…I think he’s actually going to end up winning 53-47.
Dean Chambers (The unskewedpolls.com Guy)
If these numbers are right, Mitt Romney gets elected our next president with 301 electoral votes to 237 for Barack Obama. If Romney wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, that total goes to 337 electoral votes. If Romney momentum causes him to win Oregon, New Mexico and Minnesota, he will win a total of 359 electoral votes as projected here. If Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey and Washington state come into play, they could add another 37 electoral votes to the Romney total for a final total of 396 electoral votes.
October 29th, 8 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 72.9% chance of winning
Obama won by 7 points in 2008. But the electorate has become 15 points more Republican since then. Do the math — an 8 point Romney victory! OK, maybe 5 or 6 or 7, but no cliffhanger.
Right now, I believe we’re currently ahead. Internals show us currently ahead. Honestly, I believe that Romney is going to carry Ohio.
So the question may not be whether Mr. Romney will win, but by how much…Underlings must wonder if there will be legal consequences for the laws they’ve broken. I predict an orgy of document shredding Nov. 7.
October 30th, 7 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 77.4% chance of winning
For myself, I expect Romney to win by just over 52 to 46 percent, with two minor candidates gathering about 2 percent between them.
also, speaking of pollsters…
The one I count most trustworthy is Rasmussen
A cold, hard reading of the most important trends and numbers tells us that Mitt Romney will be elected America’s 45th president…There are still many factors that can affect this closest of elections. But the most likely outcome is for Mitt Romney to ride strong public dissatisfaction with the president’s handling of the economy to victory on Nov. 6.
Joe Klein provides a needed dose of reality
So we’re in the quiet eye of the election. And I promise you, this thing can spin either way when we emerge. There will be a jobs report this Friday. There may be other surprises. But anyone who claims to know who is going to win is blowing smoke.
October 31st, 6 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 78.4% chance of winning
I predict the latter. One week from today, Mitt wins…If you’ve been watching the polls and the campaigns at all objectively, you’re starting to see a picture develop. One where Romney’s the winner well before bedtime.
Dick Morris again, in a piece titled “Here comes the landslide”
In the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new swing states look to be the battleground.
Once everyone discovers that the emperor has no clothes (or that Obama has no argument after the negative ads stopped working), the vote shift could be of historic proportions.
The most likely outcome? Eight GOP takeaways and two giveaways for a net gain of six. A 53-47 Senate, just like we have now, only opposite. Barack Obama’s parting gift to the Democratic Party.
Dan McLaughlin with a long-winded double-down on his insistence that Obama is toast
(he declares that a statistical models like Nate Silver’s 538.com is no better at predicting outcomes than RCP, which on this date are predicting Obama electoral votes of 299 and 290 respectively)
And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote…No mathematical model can provide a convincing explanation of how Obama is going to win re-election. He remains toast.
November 1st, 5 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 80.8% chance of winning
Keith Backer at Battleground Watch uses words like unrealistic, silly, and fantasy to deconstruction a trio of Quinnipiac polls showing Obama leading in swing states.
Well done Quinnipiac. Now, if you’ll just survey far more Democrats than have ever shown up at the polls in these state [sic] the Death Star may finally be fully operational and Obama can pull out an election that he is almost assuredly losing right now.
Karl Rove ignores all data that doesn’t support his argument (which is quite a bit)
My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
Boris Epshteyn cites (who else?) Gallup in his piece “3 Reasons Mitt Romney Will Win the Election”
The feeling among GOP faithful four years later is drastically different. We do not “hope” to win or “believe we can” win, but are convinced that Mitt Romney will win the election on November 6.
November 2nd, 4 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 82.67% chance of winning
Jay Cost doubles down in “Why Romney is Likely to Win”
I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday. For two reasons:
(1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again.
(2) Romney leads among independents.
The Obama campaign’s David Alexrod counters all of this with a firm prediction of victory:
(Be sure to read the comments on this one)
I don’t want to be ambiguous about this at all, We’re winning this race,” senior adviser David Axelrod said on a conference call Monday morning. “I say that not on the basis of some mystical faith in a wave that’s going to come or some hidden vote. We base it on cold, hard data based on who has voted so far and on state by state polling. So we just, you’re going to get spun and spun and spun in the next week and what I would urge you to do is to focus on the facts, focus on the data, focus on the trends in the states and if you do it will lead you to the same conclusions.
November 3rd, 3 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 83.7% chance of winning
Michael Barone ignores all the polls and goes with 315 for Mitt, 223 for Obama
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That’s bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president…Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
Michael Franc cites the single week-old (yes, you guessed it) Gallup poll and then “unskews” the rest of them…
Correcting these polls so that there was a Republican edge in the sample of voters consistent with Gallup’s finding would hand Romney a lead between five to ten points. Imagine the run on smelling salts at Mother Jones and MSNBC if that were to happen?
Speaking of unskewed polls, Dean Chambers ups his estimate to 311 Romney
If the election were held today Mitt Romney would win 311 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 227 electoral votes according to the latest polling data available today.
Lots of wishful thinking from Emmett Tyrrell
Next week President Obama goes into retirement. I hope he will consider Hawaii.
November 4th, 2 Days Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 85.5% chance of winning
Nonetheless, predicting the outcome of the election, Krauthammer said that while the recent events have helped Obama “slightly recover in the polls” Romney will ultimately win the election by a narrow margin.
Mary Kate Cary
Romney promises to deliver where Obama did not, by working with decent people on both sides of the aisle. Obama can’t promise to do the same—because it’s clear he doesn’t think there are decent people to work with on both sides anymore.
Romney does. That’s why he’ll win.
Ari Fleischer tweets:
Romn wins CO, WI and NH. That’s 271 EVs…PA and OH would be icing on the cake. Romn could peak at 309 EVs if he takes both.
November 5th, 1 Day Out…
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 86.3% chance of winning
Julia La Roche, reporting on Dennis Gartman
Another point Gartman makes is that he thinks the polls are “badly out of touch.” First, he notes the calls have a very high refusal rate and only a small percentage are actually responding. What’s more is the polling tends to take place during the day and those people responding are likely unemployed, therefore, they would likely need government assistance and would also likely lean toward the Democrats, he explains.
I can’t get enough Dick Morris
Morris says Romney will capture 325 electoral votes while Obama will get 213, a significant difference.
“It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history,” Morris said. “It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit.”
And finally, from World Net Daily. A witch doctor from Obama’s ancestral village in Kenya predicts Obama will win and of course, the birthers at WND are not surprised!
Witch doctor John Dimo tossed some shells, bones and other items to determine who will win Tuesday’s election. After throwing the objects like so many dice outside his hut in Kogelo village, Dimo, who says he is 105 years old, points to a white shell and declares: “Obama is very far ahead and is definitely going to win.”
Mitt Romney will win. The tie in the polls goes to the challenger.
November 6th, Election Day!
FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 91.6% chance of winning
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is working to restore the freedom model created by our Founders. This model has served the country well for 250-some-odd years. It is fundamentally a belief in people and good common sense. It is profoundly optimistic. Perhaps I’ll be wrong. But I think optimism wins this election.
Count this author as among those who believe the American People will not vote for failure. We will learn fairly early tomorrow night that Mitt Romney has secured an electoral majority.
Romney wins 53-47, thanks mainly to his Rope-A-Dope strategy and an immense enthusiam advantage.
Red State Blogger qsclues
For those two reasons alone, I predict a victory for Romney on Tuesday night by a margin that will be anywhere from “comfortable” to “resounding”. As a bonus prediction, the party will unofficially start when Pennsylvania is called for Romney.
Of course, we know how it all turned out.
Mark McGinty‘s work has appeared in Maybourne Magazine, Montage Magazine, Cigar City Magazine and Germ Warfare. His novel The Cigar Maker won a Bronze Medal at the 2011 Independent Publisher Book Awards and was named Finalist at both the ForeWord Magazine Book of the Year Awards and the 2011 National Indie Excellence Awards.