Thoughts on Election 2012

It’s the Friday before the election and I think it’s pretty clear that Obama will be reelected. I’m saying this publicly because it’s the truth. My brain tells me that Romney could still win but this bleeding liberal heart knows Obama will be with us for four more.

Yeah, pretty bold prediction from some guy in Minnesota who should be working on chapter 20 of his book for National Novel Writing Month but is instead writing political bullshit about Obama-Romney 2012.

But I’m not the only one to make a prediction about this race. Many have and once Obama is reelected I’ll be posting a article about a chorus of conservative pundits who have already declared Romney the winner. The article is titles A Collection of Early Obama Obituaries and you can read a sample of it now.

October 28th, 9 Days Out…

FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 74.6% chance of winning

Newt “I’m going to be the nominee” Gingrich

I think it’s very unlikely, as a historian that [Romney]  can win a significant popular victory vote and not carry the electoral college…I think he’s actually going to end up winning 53-47.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/newt-gingrich-predicts-romney-victory-of-53-47

Dean Chambers (The unskewedpolls.com Guy)

If these numbers are right, Mitt Romney gets elected our next president with 301 electoral votes to 237 for Barack Obama. If Romney wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, that total goes to 337 electoral votes. If Romney momentum causes him to win Oregon, New Mexico and Minnesota, he will win a total of 359 electoral votes as projected here. If Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey and Washington state come into play, they could add another 37 electoral votes to the Romney total for a final total of 396 electoral votes.

http://www.examiner.com/article/romney-leads-nine-of-11-key-swing-states-by-unskewed-polls-averages

October 29th, 8 Days Out…

FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 72.9% chance of winning

Dick Morris

Obama won by 7 points in 2008. But the electorate has become 15 points more Republican since then. Do the math — an 8 point Romney victory! OK, maybe 5 or 6 or 7, but no cliffhanger.

http://www.dickmorris.com/gallup-explains-why-other-polls-are-wrong/#more-10087

November 1st, 5 Days Out…

FiveThirtyEight.com Forecast: Obama 80.8% chance of winning

Karl Rove ignores all data that doesn’t support his argument (which is quite a bit)

My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

This election has been a killer and collecting these predictions has helped me through the anxiety. The final version of the article will include 11 days of victory dancing Romney-style, plus a list of election-day-Romney’s-got-it-in-the-bag  fun and games. Look for it next Wednesday morning!

Mark McGinty‘s work has appeared in Maybourne Magazine, Montage Magazine, Cigar City Magazine and Germ Warfare. His novel The Cigar Maker won a Bronze Medal at the 2011 Independent Publisher Book Awards and was named Finalist at both the ForeWord Magazine Book of the Year Awards and the 2011 National Indie Excellence Awards.

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